Question 93 of 100

We use lead indicators and other measurements to predict our long term sustainability.

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Information is presented under the following headings.

Why this is important

Lead indicators

Indicators of sustainability

A warning

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Avoid doing these poor practices

Inability to articulate a clear view of several possible futures.

Over reliance and emphasis on a single view of the future across the company.

Lack of strategic intent or supporting strategies to achieve or support new futures.

No evidence of measurement of rate of improvement and no understanding of its importance.

Learnings from overall performance analysis not deliberately developed and not directly reflected in plans.

Not recognizing and building on Business Excellence strengths.

Do these good practices

A set of indicators that measure the health of the company.

A scenario planning process that leads to new strategy. Several probably futures are identified, likelihoods and tell tale signposts determined. These are tracked. People at all levels of the company are aware of the scenarios, talk in terms of them and track the likelihood of them being the actual future.

Strategies are developed to achieve desired outcomes. Strong strategic planning processes.

Strategies and actions are put in place to achieve futures that are most advantageous for the company.

Making time in the present to plan for and influence the future. Balancing effort between present realities and future concerns.

Attempts made to predict the future using data and information. Measurements predict sustainable business outcomes into the future based on existing trends.

Ability (at senior levels) to articulate a clear strategy for growth of the company – how much, when and why the business will grow. A clear path for that growth and the risks associated with that growth.

Processes to identify and respond to risks (economic, social etc.) and likely changes to its environment (positive and negative).

Thorough strategic risk assessment conducted of risks and threats to achieving success (Mission, Vision and objectives). This is acted upon.

Plans include overcoming risks to the company (eg risks to revenue, achieving mission and vision, market share, assets, knowledge, safety, environment; risk of technology change; threat to values).

The core competencies of the company (ie those things that it does very well compared with other companies) are understood, protected and developed through deliberate strategies.

Developing a pool of knowledge as a strategy for sustainability.

Lead indicators for rate of knowledge acquisition, innovation rate.

Recognition of the relationship between improved company performance (ie, the KPIs) and the application of the Business Excellence Principles.

Business improvement (in line with an acknowledged Framework – ABEF, Baldrige or EFQM) is a company level objective with strategies that are given high priority and acted upon.

Improving results on staff opinion polls, cultural audits and Business health assessment against a Business Excellence Framework or the Business Excellence Principles.

Positive trend data on major indicators that the company uses to judge its success, in combination with rational explanation that what the company is doing to ensure positive trends continue.

Principle 10: Value for All Stakeholders (Item 9)

Sustainability is determined by an organization's ability to create and deliver value for all stakeholders.

Why this is important

You should use lead indicators and other measurements to predict your long term sustainability.

You have KPIs that tell you that you have been successful to now. You want to answer the question "will the company continue to be successful?"

Most Key Performance Indicators in use by companies today are very poor predictors of the future (as anyone knows who has had to predict sales revenue from past sales figures). Most KPIs describe history – they tell you what has happened in the past. We are not saying that KPIs are useless and should be abandoned. Quite the opposite. Useful KPIs are essential. You need them. However, when you try to predict the future, you cannot rely solely on the past.

Lead indicators

Lead indicators are indicators that you can measure today to give a clue about tomorrow.

Here are some simple examples. KPIs that rely solely on historic data are like indicators that say `the clothes on the line are wet so it must have rained'. If we try to use these as predictors of the future, it is like looking at the wet clothes on the line and trying to work out if it will rain. Only partially useful as a predictor.

On the other hand, an indicator that says `clouds brewing and winds are getting stronger it will rain soon and wet the clothes' could be a very useful predictor. We call such indicators `lead indicators'.

In your battery of KPIs that you use to make decisions about your company, you need lead indicators (predictors of the future) as well as lag indicators (that describe what has already happened).

Indicators of sustainability

Indicators you can use to predict the company's on-going success, long-term viability, competitiveness and sustainability of its success into the future include:

  • investment in stakeholder groups – these are strong lead indicators
  • the amount of investment in each stakeholder group
  • the balance in investment between stakeholder groups
  • focus on `creating and providing value' for stakeholders
  • measure and track over time your estimates of the value you provide and create for each stakeholder group. Compare this with your estimate of their target.
  • measure and track over time your estimates of the value you remove from each stakeholder group – ie how much its costs them or their business to do business with you.
  • measure the balance in value you provide to your different stakeholder groups. Is this acceptable?
  • stakeholder perception of value – this should be obtained for each stakeholder group. The reasoning is that if the stakeholder perceives that they have received value, they are less likely to jump ship. It is a compliment of the indicator above.
  • have each stakeholder group make an assessment of the value they perceive they receive from your company
  • have each stakeholder group make estimates of the value you deduct from them – their estimates of what it costs them to do business with you
  • describe the future
  • paint word pictures of what you think the future will look like
  • predict the future for several likely scenarios
  • make plans to achieve the futures you want to happen
  • develop indicators so you can tell which scenarios are emerging
  • track your scenario predictions
  • influencing the future – what the company is doing to influence its important stakeholders (especially the owners, shareholders, community, political, government, media, customers, alliance partners) to ensure its future viability
  • develop an index to summarize the perceptions these major stakeholders have of your company. Their perceptions of the value you provide to them; the value your company provides to society and the community; your values. Subtract any major negatives, eg bad media coverage.
  • develop an index to summarize your activity to influence the above index. For example, lunches, breakfasts, meetings knowledge exchange with your stakeholder groups; your advertising, positive media activity, public relations, press releases, your attempts to influence the media and the community to have a positive view.
  • management of major risks
  • assess your company's major strategic risks, e.g. the risks to it being able to achieve its mission, vision and objectives or to its values or core competencies. These may include risks due to changes in technology; social mores; political situation; financial situation of your customers, supplier or host country; government policy or regulations; industry structure; competitive mix, competitors offerings or ways competitors do business; natural environment or decisions of parent company.
  • these risks should be tabulated and their affect and the likelihood of each occurring objective assessed. For example, if x happens it will reduce our revenue by $200,000; however, the likelihood of x happening is low at 10%. Multiply the affect by the likelihood. In our example, $200,000 multiplied by 10% is $20,000. Total all the risk*likelihoods.
  • develop and implement plans to mitigate or eliminate the negative consequences of these risks, turn your negative risks into opportunities
  • estimate the residual risk*likelihoods. That is, all the risk*likelihoods that remain after you have implemented your plans.
  • graph and track the residual risk*likelihoods. If you have done the analysis objectively and if you have found all the risks, this is a good estimate of your company's sustainability.
  • responsiveness and innovation indicators – indicators for the company's
  • responsiveness to change
  • rate of knowledge acquisition
  • innovation rate
  • ability to cope with new technology
  • willingness to embrace new technology
  • competitive, innovative, responsiveness and technological capabilities
  • capability with its core competency
  • self-assessment against the 10 Principles - the Principles themselves are indicators of future success and sustainability.
  • Your estimate of how well you are performing on each of the Principles is a significant indicator of future success and sustainability. Use the questionnaire in Appendix 1.
  • measure the extent to which your company is aligned to each of the Principles.
  • self-assessment against one of the Frameworks (MBNQA, EFQM or ABEF)
  • each of the Business Excellence Frameworks is an assessment tool for the Principles. Make your own `self-assessment' of your company against one of the Business Excellence Frameworks
  • alternatively, you could have an assessment made by an external organization or make a formal application for an Award.
  • extrapolations – these are weak lead indicators
  • extrapolate historical lag KPI trends into the future. Eg Project historical financial data, cost or revenues into the future as predictors

A warning. Never build a strategy based on a market forecast – it is like trying to capture the wind. Depending on sales forecasts is a sure recipe for non-sustainability. You should do it the other way around. Build strategies and plans to reach the target forecast. When you get a sales forecast, verify it (if you can) and build and implement plans to reach it. A sales forecast is just another target – albeit an important one. And, like all targets, you must put in place very good plans to reach it.

Your answers so far arranged by Principle.

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